by Ong-on Sahachairungrueng
ID:4907640173 (N0. 14)
Asian Tourism Industry Braces for Flu Fears
By Ron Corben Bangkok28 April 2009
Asia's travel industry, struggling with weak demand because of the weak global economy, is bracing for the fallout from the swine flu. But industry analysts say Asia's 2003 experience with Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome may help the region recover quickly from a travel slump.
Monitoring arriving passengers
Airline industry and port authorities around Asia are monitoring arriving passengers, hoping to detect, and isolate, anyone infected with swine flu, which broke out in Mexico in recent weeks. In the past several days, the virus has spread to Canada, the United States, New Zealand, Israel and Europe.
It is suspected of causing about 150 deaths in Mexico where more than 1,600 possible cases have been reported.
Governments around the world are urging their citizens to avoid traveling to areas infected with swine flu, to minimize its spread. Those warnings are expected to soon translate into fewer international travelers.
Warnings affect international travel, economy
Pacific Asia Travel Association spokesman John Koldowski says there had been hope the region's travel industry would begin to recover from the economic slump late this year. Now, says Koldowski, the outlook is uncertain.
"It is going to be how quickly this can be handled, how quickly the all clear can be given and how quickly we can get consumer confidence back to a positive track. If, in the best-case scenario, that may only take two to three months. In the worst-case scenario it could take six months or longer," he said.
Brian Sinclair-Thompson, the president of the Board of Airline Representatives in Thailand, says transportation authorities are "acting correctly" in trying to reduce the spread of the flu.
SARS scare serves as reference point
Sinclair-Thompson says the travel industry and governments gained experience in dealing with health crises in 2003, when Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome hit the region.
"I think we have learned from the experience of SARS and that we are better equipped to work together to ensure the traveling public of their safety given the checks and balances and the monitoring that have been put in place," he said.
But Sinclair-Thompson adds it is unclear how long it may take the airline industry to recover. Because of the poor economy around the world, many passengers this year have booked flights closer to their departure date. That makes it hard to get a good sense of trends.
Air travel diminishes
The International Air Transport Association this week said passenger traffic fell 11 percent in March because of the economy. The Asia Pacific region led the decline with a more than 14 percent fall off in demand. Passengers for North American flights fell by more than 13 percent.
IATA had earlier forecast global passenger traffic to contract by two percent this year, with a recovery in 2010. But now such forecasts may have to be redone.
In 2008, airlines suffered a loss of nearly $8.5 billion. IATA had expected the loss to shrink this year to around $5 billion.
Swine flu casts shadow over economy
By JANE WARDELLAP Business Writer
(AP:LONDON) Uncertainty over the swine flu outbreak cast a shadow over the struggling global economy Monday, raising fears that that the spread of the virus could harm trade and tourism and undermine businesses just as they begin to rally.
Airline stocks plummeted as major travel companies in Europe and Asia cancelled tours to Mexico, the epicenter of the outbreak. Pharmaceutical companies rallied on expectations that demand for anti-viral drugs may surge to deal with any pandemic.It's far from clear how bad the outbreak will be, but any blow to travel and trade could eat away further at world gross domestic product, already forecast by the International Monetary Fund to shrink 1.3 percent this year in the first decline since World War II. Top finance officials meeting in Washington over the weekend said recovery could emerge by the end of the year.
"On top of a synchronized global financial and economic crisis, an outbreak of swine fever is the last thing we need just now," said Neil Mackinnon, chief economist at ECU Group.
The virus is suspected in up to 103 deaths and 1,600 more cases in Mexico while 40 cases were confirmed in the United States and six in Canada.
Both Swiss drug maker Roche Holding AG _ the maker of Tamiflu _ and GlaxoSmithkline PLC, which manufactures the Relenza drug, rose 4 percent in European trading. Gilead Sciences Inc., which developed Tamiflu and receives royalties from Roche, rose 4 percent.
Not all countries have significant stockpiles of the Tamiflu and Relenza. It will take months for pharmaceutical companies to produce a vaccine, starting from a seed virus.
Businesses went over their crisis plans and weighed up the potential lost productivity if the virus spreads and work forces are crippled. London-based risk management company Business Forums International said its phones ran hot on Monday as hundreds of companies made inquiries about contingency plans to deal with the absenteeism that that could come if the outbreak turns into a worldwide pandemic.
BFI program manager Elizabeth Smith said that many businesses were better prepared since the bird flu scare in early 2006 put pandemic risks higher on their agenda _ the group has held 20 conferences in the past three years involving some 10,000 businesses across Europe, albeit focused on fears of a bird flu, rather than swine flu, outbreak.
Meanwhile, tourism operators across Asia and Europe cancelled tours to Mexico after EU health officials urged Europeans on Monday to postpone nonessential travel to the United States and Mexico.
TUI Travel, Europe's biggest tour operator, said it was suspending all trips to Mexico City through May 4. Japan's largest tour agency JTB Corp. has suspended Mexico tours until at least June 30.
Irina Tyurina, a spokeswoman for the Association of Russian Travel Agencies, said that around 30 percent of people booked to travel to Mexico in early May had cancelled their plans. Tyurina said that Russian travel agencies were in talks with their Mexican counterparts to receive refunds for hotels and services.
The fears about the impact on the global economy were reflected on stock markets around the world, which fell in Asia; European stocks slid but recovered the lost ground on news of General Motors' restructuring plan in the United States.
"This is an already dangerous time for financial markets so to have this specter developing right now is certainly just cause for some very real concern," said CMC Markets analyst James Hughes, adding that the outbreak could undermine the fragile confidence beginning to return to global stock markets since the lows of early March.
In Asia, the disease brought bad memories of the SARS epidemic in 2003, which spread rapidly via air travel and devastated Asia's tourism industry, cutting annual international arrivals by more than 15 million and costing the region US$11 billion.
Fearing a replay, investors sold down airlines, many of them already suffering losses from depressed international travel amid the economic crisis. Lufthansa fell 9.2 percent, British Airways was 7.75 percent, Hong Kong's flagship carrier Cathay Pacific dropped 8 percent, while Australia's Qantas Airways lost 4 percent.
"We are in the midst of an industry downturn and this is certainly unwelcome," said Andrew Herdman, director-general of Kuala Lumpur-based Association of Asia-Pacific Airlines, which represents one-fifth of global passenger traffic and one-third of global cargo traffic. "But this is a potential public health emergency and it will have to be a priority."
In the U.S., American Airlines owner AMR Corp. and United Airlines' parent company UAL Corp. slumped around 15 percent after the open. In Europe, Deutsche Lufthansa AG fell 9 percent, while British Airways PLC was down 8 percent.
The risk that the share slump could spread further as more industries become affected was highlighted by a 5 percent fall in the stock price of British food company Cranswick, which has just bought a domestic supplier of pork for the country's biggest retailers.
Despite the lack of any evidence that swine flu can be transmitted through eating meat from infected animals, consumer concern is likely to result in falling demand
Japanese restaurant chain Matsuya Foods Co. said it will temporarily suspend as a precautionary step some pork dishes that use imported Mexican pork. Pharmaceutical companies rallied on expectations that demand for anti-viral drugs may surge to deal with any pandemic.
Swine flu outbreak raises pandemic fears and tourism concerns
By Martin Moodie Apr 26, 2009 Source: The Moodie Report
The World Health Organization (WHO) warned this weekend that an outbreak of swine flu, which has killed over 70 people in Mexico, could become a pandemic.
Besides alarming the international community the threat is a major concern for the travel and tourism sector.
Already there are suspected cases in New Zealand, France and Israel as well as in Mexico, where the virus began, and neighbouring USA.
In a statement yesterday the World Heath Organization (WHO) said it is coordinating the global response to human cases of the virus – swine influenza A (H1N1) – and monitoring the corresponding threat of an influenza pandemic. [Click here for the full WHO statement].
Speaking after a meeting of the Emergency Committee on Saturday, WHO Director-General, Dr Margaret Chan said: “The Committee agreed that the current situation constitutes a public health emergency of international concern.
Media images of Mexican citizens wearing face masks bring back uncomfortable reminders of the 2003 SARS crisis“Concerning public health measures, in line with the [International Health] Regulations the Director-General is recommending, on the advice of the Committee, that all countries intensify surveillance for unusual outbreaks of influenza-like illness and severe pneumonia," she said.
H1N1 is the same strain that causes seasonal flu outbreaks in humans, but the new strain contains genetic material from versions of flu which usually affect pigs and birds.
In the US, about 20 people are reported to have been infected, though none is seriously ill. US President Barack Obama has ordered a "very active, aggressive, and co-ordinated response", White House Homeland Security Advisor John Brennan said.
According to the BBC and other mainstream media, several countries in Asia and Latin America have begun screening airport passengers for symptoms [We'll bring you news in coming days of how airports are responding to the threat].
Ten New Zealand students who were among a group which travelled to Mexico have tested positive for influenza A - making it "likely" that they are infected with swine flu, according to Health Minister Tony Ryall
The BBC reported that in France there are unconfirmed suspicions that two individuals who had just returned from Mexico may be carrying the virus. Spain's health ministry also said that three people who had returned from Mexico with flu symptoms were in isolation. Israel was reported to have isolated a man with flu-like symptons after returning from Mexico
SARS REPEAT WOULD BE A DISASTER FOR TOURISM
The news – and images flashed all around the world of Mexican citizens wearing face masks – spell grim news for the tourism industry in Mexico, and potentially further afield.
Global tourism – and travel retail – suffered dreadfully in 2003 from the impact of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS), which devastated travel, particularly in Asia.
16 March 2003 and The Moodie Report notes the outbreak of a mystery virus - "potentially terrible news for the travel industry, especially in Asia, which was already seeing a downturn as war with Iraq nears"On 16 March 2003 The Moodie Report noted: “Global health authorities are struggling to contain a mystery virus, apparently spread by air travel, which has affected more than 150 people across several countries, killing at least nine.”
It was the beginning of a long-running story that would dominate our headlines for months. In April 2003, for example, Hong Kong tourist arrivals slumped -64.8% year-on-year due to SARS. A month later, Tokyo Narita’s passenger numbers for May fell by -56% and Singapore tourist arrivals by -72% as the crisis deepened.
On Thursday 19 July, 100 days after the WHO first alerted the world to the SARS threat, the virus was officially declared “under control”.
The travel retail industry, already in a state of siege from the global financial crisis, will be praying there is no repeat of that 100-day disaster, or any indeed of one lasting for any period at all.
My reaction: Asian tourism industry is facing a big impact of the weak global economy due to the spread of swine flu. This threat has become a major concern for the tourism sectors.
1. Governments around the world are urging their citizens to avoid traveling to areas infected with swine flu in order to minimize its spread. Those warnings are expected to translate into fewer international travelers.
2. The fears about the impact on the global economy were reflected on stock markets around the world, especially in Asia. Meanwhile, European stocks also slid but recovered the lost ground on news of General Motors’ restructuring plan in the United States.
3. Transportation authorities are “acting correctly” in trying to reduce the spread of the swine flu.
4. Passenger traffic fell 11 percent in March because of the economy. The Asia Pacific region led the decline with a more than 14 percent fall off in demand.
5. The international Air Transport Association (IATA) has expected the loss (nearly $8.5 billion) to shrink this year approximately $5 billion.
6. Many passengers this year have booked flights closer to their departure date due to the poor economy and it is unclear how long it takes the airline industry.
Conclusion: Swine flu is now spreading to each part of the world which may heavily affect to Tourism and Aviation Industry in the Asia Pacific region due to global economic slowdown.
In 2003, Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) epidemic spread rapidly via air and had a big impact on Asian Tourism Industry.
If the government can deal with the current situation, the effect will not cause much like the case of SARS epidemic and Avian flu.
